When it comes to fantasy league winners you usually think of an elaborate rookie with a rough offseason. Maybe a veteran who missed some time and fell deep into the crevice of the ADP pool. Sometimes the best surprises are those seasons where Justin Forsett and Jeremy Hill crept out of the woodwork for an explosive second half. When I think of Parris Campbell I still see the league winning upside with a clear path to get there.
2021 was a repeatable year for the Colts offense. The offensive line remains unchanged and one of the best units, grading as #11 on PFF. The game plan was pretty simple, punch the league in the mouth with the ever evolving Jonathan Taylor who racked up a league high rushing total of 1,811 yards. Taylor proved to be worthy of a facepalm during the draft for those who passed on him.
Sorry Chiefs fans.
Taylor has changed this team’s dynamic and opened up the field for fellow breakout teammate and skill position player Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts pass catchers are facing a vote of confidence from the front office and coaching staff. The Colts only changed one part of their 3 wide sets by drafting Alec Pierce 53rd overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Pierce looks like your usual wide receiver; he’s tall and fast but lacks consistent win rates versus conventional defenses. Tight End remains the same with Moe Allie-Cox in line to keep the reins of the starting TE position. Rookie Jelani Woods is an athletic down field prospect but not ready to command a workload of any confidence. Now to the meat and potatoes! The stars seemed aligned for this offense to make a majestic push forward under newly acquired QB Matt Ryan.
While this isn’t the 2016 Matt Ryan that your uncle tells you about in a sentimental enthusiastic tone, the truth is Ryan hasn’t fallen off much in terms of production. What he’s lacking in arm strength he’s making up for with his IQ and pre snap adjustments. The Colts offense is sporting their best arm since Andrew Luck and it’s not even close. The Colts want to move the ball and Ryan will help them do it. This is where our prize Parris Campbell comes into play!
The formula for a breakout season.
Quarterback Play:
Matt Ryan still brings a lot to the table involving here are some of his 2021 finishes in some key categories:
- Pass Attempts (11th)
- Passing Yards (11th)
- Danger Plays (14th)
- True Completion Percent (11th)
- Deep Ball Completion % (3rd)
What makes this even more impressive is doing so with a makeshift wide receiver core made up of Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheous, and newly resurgent Cordarelle Patterson. You can expect Ryan to trump his 2021 numbers.
Opportunity:
Campbell is still poised to be the primary outside receiver listed as the #2 on the Colts depth chart. The team projects to be in more shootouts which only means more targets and opportunities.
Big Play Ability:
In case you forgot Campbell came out as one of the most intense prospects in 2019. Parris turned heads during the combine where he boasted a 4.31 40 time. This is quite the feat when you add on his 117.2 Speed Score (98th percentile) and his 135.5 Burst Score (97th percentile). Campbell is always one play away from causing a defense to regret their coverage.
Proven Production:
In 2018 Parris Campbell played alongside beloved Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin at Ohio State. Even with elite target competition he went on to have a phenomenal senior year where he finished with 90 receptions, 1063 yards, and 12 Touchdowns. All while doing so on a 17.9% target share! Campbell has shined before with elite talent on the other side of him, I for one embrace the talent of Michael Pittman. Barring health, I expect Campbell to offer a league winning return on his current ADP of 245 in start ups and 272 in seasonal leagues. Campbell is basically free and offers earth shattering upside.
What does this mean for my fantasy team?
Campbell is going into his best situation yet with an improved offense that will look for him to contribute in a big way. The arrow is up and shaking ready for takeoff. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Campbell puts in a year 4 breakout that consists of a 67/1100/7 line which would have put him as a WR2 last year. Keeping in mind his ADP, Campbell is still viable and is an asset that must be rostered.