One of the most common things you hear from dynasty gamers is, “wow I wish I was in your league” or “no way I get a deal like that done”. And yes, the person holding Ja’Marr Chase may not accept the haul you heard about on your favorite dynasty trade show, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find deals and value throughout your leagues
In this article I hope to give you a few tips to help you execute more trades in your leagues and ultimately improve your roster through finding values. I am not here to tell you to downtier, uptier, pick swap or who to target, but instead give you the insight on how to exploit trade opportunities.
Know your settings!
This might seem fairly straight forward, yet I often find small ways to take advantage of value differences by finding uniquities in the scoring systems in each league. One example would be a player like Mark Andrews.. If you are in a TEP league Mark Andrews has significantly more value than he would in a non TEP league…Well this is kind of true. I often find the premium for tight ends varies from league to league. So you could be in a 1.25 or 1.5 TEP league or up to a 1.75 or even full 2.0 premium. This being said, not all Mark Andrews should be valued equally.
Other scoring changes that can create value:
4 vs 6 pt passing TD
PPC (point per carry)
PPR (point per reception)
PPFD (Point per first down)
Can be rushing, receiving or passing make sure to be certain
Completion Bonuses
Rec/Rush Yard bonuses
Finding a Trade Partner
This is where I feel most fantasy miss the mark. When I wake up feeling like getting some deals done I don’t immediately search my leagues for my favorite buy low targets or all important STUDS at the position. I am looking first at who has what picks. This is going to tell me more about my league than anything. It will tell you who the buyer, sellers and indecisive people in the middle are. If I am team rebuild I am looking first at those midtier teams that are 1-2 pieces away from making a playoff run. These teams often have their picks and are willing to move them for the right “young player” they have their eyes on. Also in turn I am going to create deals for the teams that have the most picks on my contending teams to add the additional veteran depth I need and the occasional post age apex stud, since these teams are often more interested in the “what’s in the box” item vs the 29yr old post apex producer. I often stay away from dealing with contenders as a rebuilding team because often they have sold their picks off already and they most likely ”feel” like a contender and are more likely to hold on to some of their younger prospects to start the early in the year, but contenders can be a great team to sell to in the mid to late season when they making their final push.
The main takeback is not focusing on the players you want, instead focusing on deals with teams that make the most sense in your leagues. Rebuild teams don’t want to buy you Derrick Henry. And contenders probably aren’t into your camp hype prospect.
Negotiating and locking in the deal
This is where it gets fun! It’s important to know here that even if you get a counter offer or trade discussion with the other league mate, odds are you still won’t get a deal done at that time. But one big thing you do in every deal and conversation is gain bits of information that you can use in your favor.
What players did they remove or add?
Did they want picks?
Did they remove the player you wanted but add something else?
*All 3 of these can give you information you can use to craft a deal to the other manager’s liking.
It’s also important to remember that even if the trade offer is pretty far off from what you have valued, DON’T JUST INSULT THEM AND WALK AWAY. It’s ok to have different values on players. Maybe there is someone else on that roster you think you could get a little easier, or just simply say “that is a little more than I am willing to pay right now” and maybe we can work something else out later. Often burning bridges or having negative interactions with leaguemates closes trade doors. So the moral of the story here is: “Be Patient, Be Loving, Be Kind, Be Gentle”… or something like that.
Takeaways
Know your setting before you go into your trades and find values in areas that trade and value calculators don’t consider
Target teams, NOT players in crafting trades
Every trade offer you receive has information you can use to your advantage
Be a respectful and kind individual while making deals
Prior to the 2021 college season, Treylon Burks was thought to be the consensus WR1 around the fantasy football industry in the 2022 draft class. The narrative has spun against Burks this offseason as his ADP is dropping in startups (around WR40) and in rookie drafts (I’ve seen him go as low as WR5). This is a result after he tested what is perceived as average to below average metrics for Burks at the combine. As well as other speculations starting to spin that he is out of shape after having asthma issues in rookie mini camp. Well I’m here to tell you this slander has gone too far and I plan on convincing the public that Treylon Burks is THE undisputed WR1 of the 2022 draft class.
The Man: Numbers Don’t Lie
Treylon Burks caught the eyes of many right out of the gate, establishing a 15.7% target share his freshman year, posting 29 receptions on 64 targets, 475 yards with 0 touchdowns, and a 16.4 yards per reception in 11 games. Sophomore year, Burks nearly doubled all his receiving numbers in just 9 games while commanding a 25% target share and scoring 7 touchdowns while maintaining a 16.1 YPR. His final year playing for the hogs is what really put the cherry on top. He posted 66 receptions, 1,104 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He also managed to increase his YPR (16.7) and target share (29.3%). What makes his final season at Arkansas more impressive is that he dominated in a conference that has won the national championship 13 out of the last 20 years.
The SEC is full of NFL talent and Treylon Burks was playing like he was on All-Madden and these defenses were on pro difficulty. In a game against Texas A&M (14th ranked defense according to NCAA.com) Burks displayed a whopping 167 yards on 6 catches and a touchdown. His lone TD scored was for 85 yards which I feel is important to mention. In another game against Alabama (7th ranked defense according to NCAA.com) he posted 8 receptions for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns. One of those TDs was for 66 yards.
He also took a 91 yard screen pass to the house against Georgia Southern, brushing off two tackles and hitting a top speed of 22.6 mph. According to Next Gen Stats, that would’ve been the fastest player recorded in the NFL in 2021. I know long TDs can be flawed because it could be off a busted coverage but in those specific cases, he beat the coverage or ran through defenders and showed how fast he really can be.
For what it’s worth, Treylon also rushed for 222 yards on 38 attempts during his three years in Arkansas. Not that 222 yards is much but in my opinion, it shows how versatile, tough, and reliant Burks was to this offense. Burks finished his college career with a 45.9% college dominator rating (92nd percentile) and a 31.3% target share (93rd percentile) according to playerprofiler.com. From the statistics, it’s easy to see Treylon got significantly better every year before declaring for the draft.
The Myth: Burks VS The Competition
From podcasts I listen to and personal experience, I have seen and heard of London, Wilson (safe play), and Burks going as the WR1 during the off-season. Burks more so before the combine and London after the combine and draft with Wilson sprinkled in there. To be honest, I think it’s just an overreaction from Burks’ “underwhelming” performance at the combine.
Burks’ landing spot was as good if not better than anyone in the draft (other than Skyy Moore and Christian Watson but they have nowhere near the same résumé or profile). Like him or not, Ryan Tannehill is a solid NFL QB and is clearly the best QB out of the QBs that the top 5 rookie receivers taken in the NFL draft went to (Mariota, Z. Wilson, Winston, Goff, Wentz). He finished QB12 in fantasy last year and was 12th in completion percentage amongst the league with QBs with over 200 passing attempts. Mariota hasn’t started a season since 2018 and ironically lost his job not even halfway through the season to none other than Ryan Tannehill. Although the Jets brought in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall through the draft, the jury is still out on Zach Wilson. He finished near the bottom of the league in all QB statistics including a 69.69 completion percentage. Point to Burks.
I often heard amongst the fantasy community that London has zero competition. London has just as much competition (or lack thereof) as Burks. The Titans traded for Robert Woods this off-season, who commanded 129 targets in 2020 with the Rams (last fully healthy season) but being 30 years old, coming off an ACL tear, and starting on a new team, who knows how Woods will turn out for Tennessee. But, behind Burks and Woods, the Titans don’t really have anyone behind them of consequence. As far as the Falcons go, It’s like some people often forget that the Falcons have a generational talent as a pass catcher, Kyle Pitts, who they just drafted last year and will command 100+ targets (like Pitts, Robert Woods could potentially command 100+). The fact of the matter is, he is listed as a “TE”…if that’s what you wanna call him. Garrett Wilson obviously has the most competition out of these three (London, Wilson, Burks). Garrett Wilson only led the Buckeyes twice in receiving yards this past season and led the team in receptions four times this season. Being a high powered offense as the Buckeyes were and having arguably the best QB in the nation, Wilson should’ve dominated at least one of the three major categories in receiving (receptions, yards, and touchdowns) during the season.
I believe the cream rises to the top in these cases. Even though I personally think Garrett Wilson will be a good NFL receiver, the Jets are in the middle of a rebuild and it could be a couple of years before the offense gets fully moving, if that is, Zach Wilson can really blossom. The receiving core consisted of rising star Elijah Moore who commanded 77 targets, Braxton Berrios commanded 65 targets, Corey Davis commanded 59 targets, and Michael Carter who commanded 55 targets. That’s 256 targets of Zach Wilson’s 383 attempts between 4 players. As the offense continues to grow adding stud running back Breece Hall along with G. Wilson, the offense should be better but is the offense trying to become more balanced or run the ball more? Is Zach Wilson going to take that next step? Will Garrett Wilson be able to usurp an already established star in the making as the alpha? Along with demanding targets from the rest of the offense that could lean more on the run with the addition of Breece Hall. Time will tell but the cards are stacked against Garrett. Another point for Burks.
London didn’t participate at the combine so we didn’t get to see how fast he really is but in my opinion on film, he doesn’t have that extra gear to blow past coverage or defenders after the catch. He can be shifty with the ball in his hands and has a great catch radius but mostly has to rely on his size to outmuscle defenders for the ball. Wilson on the other hand, killed the combine running a 4.38 seconds in the 40 yard dash. From a film perspective, he’s a good route runner with great hands and can get to that next level with his speed. My concern with him (other than target share) is that he has the same career trajectory as Terry Mclaurin. Similar players, (aside from playing at OSU) he was drafted to a rebuilding team and has had bad QB play. Next thing you know, Terry is turning 27 years old this upcoming season and has Carson Wentz as his starting QB. Terry has been a good WR2 in fantasy but never really got fully unlocked. Unlike Wilson, Burks did not kill the combine.
Most notably running a 4.55 40 yard dash but according to PlayerProfiler.com, Burks has a speed score in the 86th percentile. I believe Burks just had trouble getting off the blocks in his three attempts in the 40 yard dash. As noted earlier, Burks has shown he can blaze in game. Burks can win on all levels of the field. Physical, fast, and big. Great on the outside and inside. Can even be used in the running game and gadget plays if need be like Arkansas did. Great at adjusting to the ball with great hands. That’s a true alpha in my book. That skill set, speed, and size is something defenses have to scheme for. Final point to Burks.
The Legend: Burks Über Alles
Overall for immediate impact in redraft and in dynasty, Treylon Burks is the WR1 of this class and has the ceiling to be a WR1 in the league. Another knock against Burks in Tennessee is volume. Recently departed from the Titans A.J. Brown (Burks most common player comparison) commanded 105 targets in just 13 games in the 2021 season and the previous year he commanded 106 targets in 14 games. If AJB is healthy for a full season in either of those seasons, he should have 130+ targets and a more fitting reception and yard total aside from being in a run heavy offense. And, with Derrick Henry doing alien-like things way past the age apex for running backs. As long as Burks excels and stays healthy, there is room for Burks to at least put up similar numbers to AJB.
It’s only a matter of time before a player of Henrys’ size, age, and volume that he’s gotta start slowing down. Especially after AJB and Julio leaving, the assumption is the Titans have to continue to lean on the run more in 2022. With defenses keying on Henry (who I think could take a step back this season) my opinion is that the Titans are going to have to pass more. According to Warren Sharp on sharpfootballanalysis.com, the Titans have the 12th hardest schedule in the league for the 2022 season. With the Titans having a solid defense (13th ranked defense in week 17 according to PFF.com) they should still compete. So with a “worse” offense, tough schedule, and solid defense, the team should find itself in a lot of close games. If not close, they should be trying to get back into games leading them to pass more. The opportunity is there for Burks to fill AJB’s shoes and even exceed them.
If ALL of that wasn’t enough to convince you that Treylon Burks is the WR1 of the 2022 WR class, let me give you a few facts that can show you the toughness and grit of this man. He once bent a metal bat off a hit in high school baseball. He hunts wild boars with his bare hands. They also sing folk songs amongst the Arkansas community about Treylon and the tales of his greatness. That last part isn’t true but if someone told me that, I’d believe it. So in conclusion, get on the Burks train while you can in fantasy because by next year you’re going to wish you listened to me.
