Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft the upcoming class was looked at as being a down year as far as fantasy prospects go. Through 7 games so far in the season the class has exceeded expectations but in particular, the wide receivers. They have shown how much depth and promise this class had at wide receiver when everyone had their blinders on, including myself. The running backs of this class were not as deep but as far as impact goes for fantasy? Three backs have not only made an impact on your fantasy rosters but to their NFL franchises as well. Without further ado, let’s dive into the numbers through the halfway point of the fantasy season.
Quarterbacks
•2022 Rookie QB Statline
The QBs of the class so far have obviously been the most underwhelming. With only Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis getting playing time. Pickett only started 4 games so far and Willis came in relief in a blow out against the Bills.
The statistics show that when called upon, they haven’t been exactly lighting the NFL on fire. I will say as a Steelers fan, Pickett has shown some promise despite his stats. I believe he will be a much better start in 2023 when hopefully the Steelers bolster the team up in the draft and free agency. The other QBs, well time will tell if they ever get a shot in the NFL. I do believe the Falcons will soon hand the reins over to Desmond Ridder. The team needs to see what they have in him before what is perceived as a QB heavy draft.
-Matt Corral couldn’t have gotten hurt at a worse time. Pre Draft I thought Corral was the best QB in the class but the NFL said otherwise being drafted as the 4th QB off the board and in the 3rd round. Carolina has had a continuing QB carousel dating back to when they moved on from Cam Newton, the first time. The point is, Corral had such a great opportunity to showcase his talents this season but his season ending injury has derailed his career in my opinion. The Panthers being a dumpster fire this season, they are gonna have a chance to draft one of the top two QBs of the 23 class, setting Corral even further back.
Of all the bright spots of this rookie class, Breece was the brightest. The workload was just taking off. Week 1 Breece was splitting the workload a lot more with a 44.3% snap share compared to his Week 6 snap share at 68.6%. Breece was on pace to have a similar rookie season to Saquon Barkley and most likely win the OROY.
Breece was never going to reach an 87.9 % snap share due to the fact that the quadfather was selected 2nd overall and the franchise had no choice but to play him that much. The fact of the matter is, Breece was efficient and was slowly getting ramped up to have the full workload.
Quick Outlook
It’s gonna take Hall at least a year to two years to be back to full health after tearing his ACL. He might not miss a game but also like Saquon, it took him a full two years to be back to the generational talent that we knew and loved. My opinion, go acquire Breece in dynasty. ESPECIALLY if your team doesn’t have the juice right now.
Just like Beastmode, Pierce runs like a bull. Showing a quick first step and the determination to run through five brick walls. After week 1, snap share has risen around 60-70%. His 106 carries ranks 7th in the league. So volume will not be a problem for him moving forward. Rex Burkhead is gobbling up the passing work but that doesn’t seem to be a problem for Pierce being RB13 so far.
Quick Outlook
I personally think it’ll be hard for Pierce to sustain the efficiency for the rest of the season, being that the Texans offense is just bad. Their offense ranks 31st in total yards per game and 29th in total points per game. Without getting the passing work, I think he’ll finish the season as a mid to backend RB2.
As Breece Halls’ season got derailed, Kenneth Walkers’ season is just getting on track. Since the injury of Rashaad Penny, Walker has started weeks 6-7 and he hasn’t disappointed. Totaling 44 carries for 264 yards and scoring 3 of his 4 TDs. 45.7 fantasy points total for those games. All aboard the Kenneth Walker train! Hop on while you can. IMO, he is now the front runner for OROY.
Quick Outlook
Walker is a must start for the foreseeable future. Don’t overthink it. He’s an RB1 for the rest of the season and for dynasty.
Honorable Mentions
•Isiah Pacheco- Pacheco hasn’t done much as far as the box scores go, but he is averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 39 rush attempts but IMO he’s clearly the best back in the Chiefs backfield and is worth monitoring. Fast and runs hard every time he gets the ball. He just needs the opportunity at this point to take over.
•Brian Robinson- After recovering from a terrible situation in the off-season, Robinson instantly came in and started taking the majority of the carries. He’s not much more than a between the 20s grinder but it says a lot about the player/human that Washington wanted to give him carries so quickly and can always use him in a pinch for the rest of the season.
London started off the season guns blazing averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game in the first three games.
As you can see he tailed off the last 4 weeks of the 7 game stretch. The Falcons have relied heavily on the run to manage games and Drake Londons’ (and Kyle Pitts for that matter) statistics show that. Atlanta is first in the NFC South surprisingly, and that means they’re not gonna change something that’s working. Any chance of seeing Ridder this season to maybe up that volume in the passing game is dwindling as the Falcons continue to win games. This could lead to more inconsistent fantasy play from London for the rest of the season.
Quick Outlook
London will have some spike weeks here and there but he will probably be stuck in that backend WR3 area for the rest of the season due to the run heavy offense and QB play from Mariota.
Olave has been the best rookie receiver thus far and it’s not close. Olave has averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game in the 7 game stretch. Coming in as WR19 to this point and probably would be higher if not for missing a game due to injury. Scoring double digit fantasy points in 5 of his 6 games played. Whether it’s Winston or Dalton at QB, it doesn’t matter. The Saints are doing everything they can to target Olave consistently downfield which will lead to a cornucopia of fantasy points.
Quick Outlook
The Saints are a great spot for the rookie for the season and for the foreseeable future. The Saints are just good enough to stay in games and keep feeding him the rock. With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry past the age apex and unfortunately constantly battling injuries, Olave is set up for success.
Like London, Garrett Wilson started off hot averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game for the first 3 games. Actually very similar numbers to London those 3 games.
Unlike London, Garrett Wilson has had a change of QBs after week 3. Change to worse QB play…And that QBs’ name rhymes with Schmack Schmilson. Zach Wilson coming back from injury was the worst thing that could happen to Garrett Wilson this season. Garrett commanded a 21.6% target share the first 3 games with Joe Flacco at QB.
Quick Outlook
Although Zach was bad for Garrett once he returned, I do think it gets better for Garrett. Elijah Moore has been upset about his role and Robert Saleh isn’t catering to him. Actually quite the opposite, telling the media they need to get Garrett the ball more. Wheels up for my WR2 of this class moving forward!
I will say if you haven’t seen the catch above yet….GO WATCH IT NOW. One of the greatest catches I have ever seen. Anyways…Even though the Steelers season has been a dumpster fire so far, Pickens has been fun to watch every Sunday. Since the Steelers switched to Pickett at QB, Pickens has scored double digit fantasy points 3 out of the 4 games with Pickett at QB.
Quick Outlook
It’s hard to trust any Steeler player this season but the good news is that it looks like Kenny Pickett might have a different WR1 in mind on the team and that bodes well for Pickens in dynasty.
Honorable Mentions
•Jahan Dotson- Only played the first 4 games but averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game.
•Romeo Doubs- One of Rodgers’ go to targets but he’s only averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game and the offense runs slow.
•Treylon Burks- Burks snap share started to really ramp up (week 1- 36.7 to week 3- 67.3). 65 of his 115 yards were all YAC. Should be back soon after suffering turf toe and missing 3 games. I still believe he’s the best receiver in this class. Hopefully he can prove me right when he comes back.
Tight Ends
•Daniel Bellinger
Bellinger has been a solid option for Daniel Jones and the Giants for his rookie season. Even letting him score a rushing TD in week 5 against Green Bay. You rarely see a team put that kinda trust in a rookie TE. His snap share was ramped up to 96.8% before getting injured in week 6.
Quick Outlook
Bellinger is gonna miss some time due to his injury and could miss the rest of the fantasy season. Moving forward though, Bellinger will be an interesting streamer in dynasty. When you’re reaching for a TE on some teams, it’s never a bad thing to select a TE that the staff has the courage to hand the ball to around the end zone.
•Greg Dulcich
To be honest, I wasn’t even gonna mention Dulcich for this but in a crapshoot of a position group from fantasy, Greg’s first two games in the NFL are worth noting. In the offseason I was a big AlbertO guy and that he was gonna breakout. Only because he was an athletic TE and Russ always loved throwing to TEs. Russ even made guys like Will Dissly and Jacob Hollister fantasy relevant some weeks in the past. I was wrong. Greg is the guy. Scoring a TD in his first game. It’s not just a fluke either. The Broncos are making him a feature part of their offense.
Quick Outlook
If you can go get him in a league that you need a TE, go get him. I have a feeling by the end of the year, he will be in the conversation as a top 5 dynasty TE.
When I look at the pool of wide receivers there is too often the overplaying factor of personal brand and team appeal pushing players up the draft boards. Pushing up aging veterans who are at the crossroads still clinging to their last grip of relevancy. I want to try to sell you on the idea that we don’t need that first and second round wide receiver with all those bells and whistles. Sometimes that lightly used Radio Flyer is the best thing you have, and you just need to wipe the dust off and remember what it was that excited you about it before. My Radio Flyer is no other than DJ Moore. I always wonder how Moore makes his way to the fourth round in startup drafts. Is it the jersey number change? Is it the “he doesn’t have an elite quarterback” narrative? Or is it the fear that he is second fiddle to Christian McCaffery? Whatever the case may be there are some serious arguments to be made for the ever-increasing value offered in drafts.
Source: Player Profiler
BOX STUFFER
✅ #17 in Hog Rate
✅ #6 in Total Opportunity
✅ #10 in Route Win Rate
✅ #12 in YAC
✅ #4 in Unrealized Air Yards
✅ College Dominator Rating finishing with 1,033 of the 1,500 yards at Maryland in his Junior season.
One box that DJ Moore is not checking is in the corrected value column. Yes, Carolina is a small market. Yes, Carolina has not made the playoffs recently. Yes, Christian McCaffrey is the engine to the offense, but there are a few arguments to be made that would dismiss those labels.
Moore inked a 3 year extension worth $61,900,00 ensuring his job and involvement in this offense. There is such a historical importance to these second contracts. Not only getting one but to be paid amongst the elite. Being paid the 10th highest feels like a discount for what is left to be unlocked.
Moore sports one of the most historical production rates for a receiver through his first four seasons! Averaging 14.3 Yards Per Target and 69 Yards Per Game that leaves him with totals that are toe to toe with Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, and eclipsing the great Calvin Johnson and Isaac Bruce with LESS volume. Remember the legendary start to Odell Beckham’s career, where he was melting faces and showing how his rotator cuff is the flex tape of all body parts? What if I told you DJ Moore’s stats are nearly Identical to Odell’s.
THROUGH FOUR SEASONS
Moore is simply becoming a production machine while having a long history of subpar QB play. His low touchdown rate is largely a product of Quarterback production and coaches choosing to run designed plays rather than trust the passer to make a completion.
Source: Player Profiler
COLLEGE PRODUCTION
While a Junior at Maryland, Moore had Max Bortenschlager throwing the ball. As the leading passer Max finished the season with 1,313 yards. Yes, a total of 1,313 yards which helped Maryland finish with a miserable 1,500 yards passing for the season. Out of those 1,500 yards DJ finished with 1,033 of them measuring to a 66% ownership of that volume. After outclassing secondaries and showing he can produce in a low volume offense he decided to give us that ever so juicy early declare label that means so much.
Since going pro these are the Quarterbacks DJ Moore has had while putting up historical numbers:
· Cam Newton (Bad Shoulder Version)
· Kyle Allen
· Teddy Bridgewater
· Sam Darnold
Darnold was really the most disastrous of these noodle arms, putting up stats that you would expect from an emergency backup:
· 24th in Pass Attempts (406)
· 28th in Passing Yards (2,527)
· 31st in Passing Touchdowns (9)
· 9th in Interception (13)
· 33rd in catchable Pass Rate (73.2%)
While dealing with replacement level production at the league’s 4th slowest pace of play, Moore still managed to salvage his season by posting 93 receptions for 1,157 yards. Once again proving he is still the target hog we loved at Maryland. Whoever is next after Darnold should confidently be considered an upgrade for Moore. If 1150-1200 yards with atrocious Quarterback play is his floor, what does an average passer do for this offense? The path to a 1400 Yard, 10 TD season is so easy to envision.
MARKET VALUE
Moore is still being valued as WR14 on the crowdsourced site Keep Trade Cut. A sin if you ask me, ranked below aging veterans on new teams Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and even below unproven rookies like Drake London. Look past the appeal of an early pick in the widely viewed weak class. The appeal of London, Burks, and Wilson is strong but it’s safe to assume we view Moore’s current production as a successful outcome for any of these players in the next three seasons.
Source: Keep Trade Cut
FANTASY IMPACT
If you take away just one thing today let it be that DJ Moore has a lot to offer and he is a peak performance athlete who will eventually get the praise he deserves with likely a correction coming to his touchdown totals.
Carolina just landed a trade for Baker Mayfield at the start of OTA’s. While not a world beater, Mayfield offers the arm strength along with just enough guts to put Moore into some favorable situations. I hope whoever isn’t on board gets invested and will truly reap the rewards of seeing what’s in clear sight. CMC is a cautionary tale of opportunity regression, Robby Anderson has a missing person’s report out for his well being, and Terrence Marshall just simply isn’t what he looked to be coming out of college.
I would be sniffing around my leagues and offering the newfound rookie WR1 George Pickens with a late 23 second package to anyone who is doubting this elite talent. Moore is the future and offers top 5 upside. Give this man his respect!
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Prior to the 2021 college season, Treylon Burks was thought to be the consensus WR1 around the fantasy football industry in the 2022 draft class. The narrative has spun against Burks this offseason as his ADP is dropping in startups (around WR40) and in rookie drafts (I’ve seen him go as low as WR5). This is a result after he tested what is perceived as average to below average metrics for Burks at the combine. As well as other speculations starting to spin that he is out of shape after having asthma issues in rookie mini camp. Well I’m here to tell you this slander has gone too far and I plan on convincing the public that Treylon Burks is THE undisputed WR1 of the 2022 draft class.
The Man: Numbers Don’t Lie
Treylon Burks caught the eyes of many right out of the gate, establishing a 15.7% target share his freshman year, posting 29 receptions on 64 targets, 475 yards with 0 touchdowns, and a 16.4 yards per reception in 11 games. Sophomore year, Burks nearly doubled all his receiving numbers in just 9 games while commanding a 25% target share and scoring 7 touchdowns while maintaining a 16.1 YPR. His final year playing for the hogs is what really put the cherry on top. He posted 66 receptions, 1,104 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He also managed to increase his YPR (16.7) and target share (29.3%). What makes his final season at Arkansas more impressive is that he dominated in a conference that has won the national championship 13 out of the last 20 years.
The SEC is full of NFL talent and Treylon Burks was playing like he was on All-Madden and these defenses were on pro difficulty. In a game against Texas A&M (14th ranked defense according to NCAA.com) Burks displayed a whopping 167 yards on 6 catches and a touchdown. His lone TD scored was for 85 yards which I feel is important to mention. In another game against Alabama (7th ranked defense according to NCAA.com) he posted 8 receptions for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns. One of those TDs was for 66 yards.
He also took a 91 yard screen pass to the house against Georgia Southern, brushing off two tackles and hitting a top speed of 22.6 mph. According to Next Gen Stats, that would’ve been the fastest player recorded in the NFL in 2021. I know long TDs can be flawed because it could be off a busted coverage but in those specific cases, he beat the coverage or ran through defenders and showed how fast he really can be.
For what it’s worth, Treylon also rushed for 222 yards on 38 attempts during his three years in Arkansas. Not that 222 yards is much but in my opinion, it shows how versatile, tough, and reliant Burks was to this offense. Burks finished his college career with a 45.9% college dominator rating (92nd percentile) and a 31.3% target share (93rd percentile) according to playerprofiler.com. From the statistics, it’s easy to see Treylon got significantly better every year before declaring for the draft.
The Myth: Burks VS The Competition
From podcasts I listen to and personal experience, I have seen and heard of London, Wilson (safe play), and Burks going as the WR1 during the off-season. Burks more so before the combine and London after the combine and draft with Wilson sprinkled in there. To be honest, I think it’s just an overreaction from Burks’ “underwhelming” performance at the combine.
Burks’ landing spot was as good if not better than anyone in the draft (other than Skyy Moore and Christian Watson but they have nowhere near the same résumé or profile). Like him or not, Ryan Tannehill is a solid NFL QB and is clearly the best QB out of the QBs that the top 5 rookie receivers taken in the NFL draft went to (Mariota, Z. Wilson, Winston, Goff, Wentz). He finished QB12 in fantasy last year and was 12th in completion percentage amongst the league with QBs with over 200 passing attempts. Mariota hasn’t started a season since 2018 and ironically lost his job not even halfway through the season to none other than Ryan Tannehill. Although the Jets brought in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall through the draft, the jury is still out on Zach Wilson. He finished near the bottom of the league in all QB statistics including a 69.69 completion percentage. Point to Burks.
I often heard amongst the fantasy community that London has zero competition. London has just as much competition (or lack thereof) as Burks. The Titans traded for Robert Woods this off-season, who commanded 129 targets in 2020 with the Rams (last fully healthy season) but being 30 years old, coming off an ACL tear, and starting on a new team, who knows how Woods will turn out for Tennessee. But, behind Burks and Woods, the Titans don’t really have anyone behind them of consequence. As far as the Falcons go, It’s like some people often forget that the Falcons have a generational talent as a pass catcher, Kyle Pitts, who they just drafted last year and will command 100+ targets (like Pitts, Robert Woods could potentially command 100+). The fact of the matter is, he is listed as a “TE”…if that’s what you wanna call him. Garrett Wilson obviously has the most competition out of these three (London, Wilson, Burks). Garrett Wilson only led the Buckeyes twice in receiving yards this past season and led the team in receptions four times this season. Being a high powered offense as the Buckeyes were and having arguably the best QB in the nation, Wilson should’ve dominated at least one of the three major categories in receiving (receptions, yards, and touchdowns) during the season.
I believe the cream rises to the top in these cases. Even though I personally think Garrett Wilson will be a good NFL receiver, the Jets are in the middle of a rebuild and it could be a couple of years before the offense gets fully moving, if that is, Zach Wilson can really blossom. The receiving core consisted of rising star Elijah Moore who commanded 77 targets, Braxton Berrios commanded 65 targets, Corey Davis commanded 59 targets, and Michael Carter who commanded 55 targets. That’s 256 targets of Zach Wilson’s 383 attempts between 4 players. As the offense continues to grow adding stud running back Breece Hall along with G. Wilson, the offense should be better but is the offense trying to become more balanced or run the ball more? Is Zach Wilson going to take that next step? Will Garrett Wilson be able to usurp an already established star in the making as the alpha? Along with demanding targets from the rest of the offense that could lean more on the run with the addition of Breece Hall. Time will tell but the cards are stacked against Garrett. Another point for Burks.
London didn’t participate at the combine so we didn’t get to see how fast he really is but in my opinion on film, he doesn’t have that extra gear to blow past coverage or defenders after the catch. He can be shifty with the ball in his hands and has a great catch radius but mostly has to rely on his size to outmuscle defenders for the ball. Wilson on the other hand, killed the combine running a 4.38 seconds in the 40 yard dash. From a film perspective, he’s a good route runner with great hands and can get to that next level with his speed. My concern with him (other than target share) is that he has the same career trajectory as Terry Mclaurin. Similar players, (aside from playing at OSU) he was drafted to a rebuilding team and has had bad QB play. Next thing you know, Terry is turning 27 years old this upcoming season and has Carson Wentz as his starting QB. Terry has been a good WR2 in fantasy but never really got fully unlocked. Unlike Wilson, Burks did not kill the combine.
Most notably running a 4.55 40 yard dash but according to PlayerProfiler.com, Burks has a speed score in the 86th percentile. I believe Burks just had trouble getting off the blocks in his three attempts in the 40 yard dash. As noted earlier, Burks has shown he can blaze in game. Burks can win on all levels of the field. Physical, fast, and big. Great on the outside and inside. Can even be used in the running game and gadget plays if need be like Arkansas did. Great at adjusting to the ball with great hands. That’s a true alpha in my book. That skill set, speed, and size is something defenses have to scheme for. Final point to Burks.
The Legend: Burks Über Alles
Overall for immediate impact in redraft and in dynasty, Treylon Burks is the WR1 of this class and has the ceiling to be a WR1 in the league. Another knock against Burks in Tennessee is volume. Recently departed from the Titans A.J. Brown (Burks most common player comparison) commanded 105 targets in just 13 games in the 2021 season and the previous year he commanded 106 targets in 14 games. If AJB is healthy for a full season in either of those seasons, he should have 130+ targets and a more fitting reception and yard total aside from being in a run heavy offense. And, with Derrick Henry doing alien-like things way past the age apex for running backs. As long as Burks excels and stays healthy, there is room for Burks to at least put up similar numbers to AJB.
It’s only a matter of time before a player of Henrys’ size, age, and volume that he’s gotta start slowing down. Especially after AJB and Julio leaving, the assumption is the Titans have to continue to lean on the run more in 2022. With defenses keying on Henry (who I think could take a step back this season) my opinion is that the Titans are going to have to pass more. According to Warren Sharp on sharpfootballanalysis.com, the Titans have the 12th hardest schedule in the league for the 2022 season. With the Titans having a solid defense (13th ranked defense in week 17 according to PFF.com) they should still compete. So with a “worse” offense, tough schedule, and solid defense, the team should find itself in a lot of close games. If not close, they should be trying to get back into games leading them to pass more. The opportunity is there for Burks to fill AJB’s shoes and even exceed them.
If ALL of that wasn’t enough to convince you that Treylon Burks is the WR1 of the 2022 WR class, let me give you a few facts that can show you the toughness and grit of this man. He once bent a metal bat off a hit in high school baseball. He hunts wild boars with his bare hands. They also sing folk songs amongst the Arkansas community about Treylon and the tales of his greatness. That last part isn’t true but if someone told me that, I’d believe it. So in conclusion, get on the Burks train while you can in fantasy because by next year you’re going to wish you listened to me.
April 2020 seems like forever ago. That was the first time I did a deep dive on Trey Lance and published my Devy Diamonds article highlighting Lance’s talent on BreakoutFinder. Although he’s now a member of the San Francisco 49ers after being selected 3rd overall, Lance’s prospect profile still matters when considering his chances for success moving forward. To refresh our memories, he led the North Dakota State Bison to an FCS National Championship victory as a redshirt freshman, finishing 16-0. That season, he threw for 2,786 yards on a completion percentage of just under 67% and had a touchdown to interception ratio of 28:0. He won the Jerry Rice Award for the most outstanding freshman in FCS football and was the first freshman to win the Walter Payton Award for the most outstanding player in FCS football (basically the equivalent of the Heisman Trophy for FCS), becoming the first player to win both in the same year. He won countless other awards & honors but due to the COVID shortened 2020 college football season, Lance only played in one single game in his “redshirt sophomore year”. Jumping forward to the 2021 NFL Draft, the biggest concern looming over Trey Lance was his lack of experience, especially against higher end competition, since he had only played in 19 games, starting 18 of them, all of which were at the FCS level. Despite his lack of experience, the San Francisco 49ers traded up to the 3rd overall pick, selected Trey Lance, and the rest is history.
THE TOOLS
A bit more background on Trey Lance: He stands at 6-foot-4, weighs 225-pounds and boasts tantalizing athleticism and a cannon for an arm. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, he racked up 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Remember – in college, they also count sacks as negative rushing yards, so those sack yards were subtracted from his total to reach that 1,100 number as well. He did not run the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine or his pro day but has been reported to consistently clock mid 4.5 times in addition to a 7.00 three-cone and a 39.5” vertical jump (three-cone faster than any 2020 QB including Justin Herbert’s 7.06, and vertical 1/2” shy of the all-time QB combine record).
I’ll let his arm talent & arm strength speak for itself…
The “Quarterback Frankenstein” comp photo is of course tongue in cheek (cough, David Montgomery) but as the youngest starting quarterback in the NFL, Lance has absolutely crazy upside, unparalleled by any other QB under the age of 25.
FLASHES IN 2021
In 2021, Trey Lance was 1-1 as the starter. His lone defeat came in a 7-point loss to the division rival Arizona Cardinals who finished 11-6. He finished the season with 603 passing yards, 168 rushing yards, 6 total touchdowns (5 passing, 1 rushing) and 2 interceptions. Though he didn’t blow anyone away with his rookie year statistics, he did show flashes in both starts (ARI, HOU) and four additional appearances (DET, GB, SEA, JAX), in addition to a strong preseason showing.
To say the San Francisco 49ers offense will be loaded in 2022 is an understatement. As of June, they have retained all of their most dangerous skill position weapons and have even added a few players in the draft and free agency. The Niners retain their receiving core of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and of course, tight end George Kittle. In the backfield, they also welcome back rookie sensation Elijah Mitchell and fullback/Swiss Army knife Kyle Juszczyk, in addition to Trey Sermon, Jeff Wilson and JaMycal Hasty. San Francisco also proceeded to add RB Tyrion Davis-Price (LSU) and WR Danny Gray (SMU) in the NFL Draft at picks 93 and 105 respectively while also signing former Steelers/Bills WR Ray-Ray McCloud and journeyman TE Tyler Kroft in free agency. They have a stacked offense with solid experience at each skill position. Kyle Shanahan has also shown willingness to use Konami code quarterbacks in the past when given the talent (Robert Griffin III – 2012-13 in Washington, and Johnny Manziel – 2014 in Cleveland).
Now this may sound crazy at first but hear me out. This situation is eerily similar to Patrick Mahomes in 2018.
The Kansas City Chiefs were a playoff team in Mahomes’ rookie season where Mahomes played limited snaps. Entering his second year, led by offensive guru Andy Reid, they had talent at all of their skill positions. The backfield was led by second year running back Kareem Hunt, coming off an unexpected breakout rookie season after the expected starter Spencer Ware got hurt. Top receiver and YAC monster, Tyreek Hill, was coming off a breakout second season and was looking to show last season’s production wasn’t a fluke. Travis Kelce was a known talent at tight end, with two 1000-yard seasons under his belt and acted as a safety blanket given his experience and proven production. Mahomes, a QB with all the tools and physical attributes, replaced a “game manager” style quarterback in Alex Smith and won the NFL MVP award while setting multiple single-season records.
Let’s replace a few words here…
The San Francisco 49ers were a playoff team in Lance’s rookie season where Lance played limited snaps. Entering his second year, led by offensive guru Kyle Shanahan, they have talent at all of their skill positions. The backfield is led by second year running back Elijah Mitchell, coming off an unexpected breakout rookie season after the expected starter Raheem Mostert got hurt. Top receiver and YAC monster, Deebo Samuel, is coming off a breakout second season and is looking to show last season’s production wasn’t a fluke. George Kittle is a known talent at tight end, with two 1000-yard seasons under his belt and will act as a safety blanket given his experience and proven production. Lance, a QB with all the tools and physical attributes, replaces a “game manager” style quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is yet to come.
I know not all of that is sticky or predictive, but it’s extremely eerie. It also shows how much upside the situation in San Francisco cultivates. The situation in Kansas City in 2018 was a major reason many fantasy gamers were all-in on Patrick Mahomes before his historic season. Trey Lance is a locked-in Top-10 quarterback in 2022 and I predict he will finish the season as a Top-3 quarterback with QB1 overall upside that only a handful of quarterbacks possess.
LOOKING AHEAD IN DYNASTY
In seasonal leagues, Trey Lance is a smash, but what’s his outlook in dynasty? Being a “Konami code” quarterback, does that limit his long-term upside? I don’t think so. Since he was drafted 3rd overall, he will get a chance to start and will have a longer leash than most (such as Jalen Hurts), especially since the 49ers traded the house to move up for him. Let’s do a quick thought experiment… For the record, I think Trey Lance has a stronger arm and more upside than Jalen Hurts as a passer, but Hurts is the best example of an unproven, young, dual threat QB. Last year, Jalen Hurts was the QB9, which I think is near Trey Lance’s floor barring injury. If he produces at the level of 2020 Jalen Hurts, he’ll likely be inked to a contract extension very quickly in the next 1-2 years, given the capital the 49ers have invested in him. I fully believe in Trey Lance. If he produces, he deserves an extension, but I also think the same of Jalen Hurts, who’s job doesn’t seem very secure in 2023/2024. Even if Lance doesn’t produce, he’ll get a longer leash partially due to the sunk cost fallacy that plagues each and every NFL franchise. This is just another situation where you can use the NFL’s draft capital/player investment bias to your advantage. Second round pick Jalen Hurts, on the other hand, is hurt by somewhat of a “reverse” sunk cost fallacy, as he’s punished more severely for poor/average performance and is given less credit for productive games/seasons. For this reason, Lance has much more job security and a better long-term outlook than a player like Jalen Hurts. Imagine a player like Jalen Hurts, but add top-3 draft capital, arm strength through the roof, prototypical size, and a more proven team around him. THAT is a player I want in every fantasy football format, especially dynasty, and that is the type of player Trey Lance very well may be.
When it comes to fantasy league winners you usually think of an elaborate rookie with a rough offseason. Maybe a veteran who missed some time and fell deep into the crevice of the ADP pool. Sometimes the best surprises are those seasons where Justin Forsett and Jeremy Hill crept out of the woodwork for an explosive second half. When I think of Parris Campbell I still see the league winning upside with a clear path to get there.
2021 was a repeatable year for the Colts offense. The offensive line remains unchanged and one of the best units, grading as #11 on PFF. The game plan was pretty simple, punch the league in the mouth with the ever evolving Jonathan Taylor who racked up a league high rushing total of 1,811 yards. Taylor proved to be worthy of a facepalm during the draft for those who passed on him.
Sorry Chiefs fans.
Taylor has changed this team’s dynamic and opened up the field for fellow breakout teammate and skill position player Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts pass catchers are facing a vote of confidence from the front office and coaching staff. The Colts only changed one part of their 3 wide sets by drafting Alec Pierce 53rd overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Pierce looks like your usual wide receiver; he’s tall and fast but lacks consistent win rates versus conventional defenses. Tight End remains the same with Moe Allie-Cox in line to keep the reins of the starting TE position. Rookie Jelani Woods is an athletic down field prospect but not ready to command a workload of any confidence. Now to the meat and potatoes! The stars seemed aligned for this offense to make a majestic push forward under newly acquired QB Matt Ryan.
While this isn’t the 2016 Matt Ryan that your uncle tells you about in a sentimental enthusiastic tone, the truth is Ryan hasn’t fallen off much in terms of production. What he’s lacking in arm strength he’s making up for with his IQ and pre snap adjustments. The Colts offense is sporting their best arm since Andrew Luck and it’s not even close. The Colts want to move the ball and Ryan will help them do it. This is where our prize Parris Campbell comes into play!
The formula for a breakout season.
Quarterback Play:
Matt Ryan still brings a lot to the table involving here are some of his 2021 finishes in some key categories:
Pass Attempts (11th)
Passing Yards (11th)
Danger Plays (14th)
True Completion Percent (11th)
Deep Ball Completion % (3rd)
What makes this even more impressive is doing so with a makeshift wide receiver core made up of Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheous, and newly resurgent Cordarelle Patterson. You can expect Ryan to trump his 2021 numbers.
Opportunity:
Campbell is still poised to be the primary outside receiver listed as the #2 on the Colts depth chart. The team projects to be in more shootouts which only means more targets and opportunities.
Big Play Ability:
In case you forgot Campbell came out as one of the most intense prospects in 2019. Parris turned heads during the combine where he boasted a 4.31 40 time. This is quite the feat when you add on his 117.2 Speed Score (98th percentile) and his 135.5 Burst Score (97th percentile). Campbell is always one play away from causing a defense to regret their coverage.
Proven Production:
In 2018 Parris Campbell played alongside beloved Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin at Ohio State. Even with elite target competition he went on to have a phenomenal senior year where he finished with 90 receptions, 1063 yards, and 12 Touchdowns. All while doing so on a 17.9% target share! Campbell has shined before with elite talent on the other side of him, I for one embrace the talent of Michael Pittman. Barring health, I expect Campbell to offer a league winning return on his current ADP of 245 in start ups and 272 in seasonal leagues. Campbell is basically free and offers earth shattering upside.
What does this mean for my fantasy team?
Campbell is going into his best situation yet with an improved offense that will look for him to contribute in a big way. The arrow is up and shaking ready for takeoff. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Campbell puts in a year 4 breakout that consists of a 67/1100/7 line which would have put him as a WR2 last year. Keeping in mind his ADP, Campbell is still viable and is an asset that must be rostered.
