TREY LANCE: ROCKET SHIP
THE PROSPECT
April 2020 seems like forever ago. That was the first time I did a deep dive on Trey Lance and published my Devy Diamonds article highlighting Lance’s talent on BreakoutFinder. Although he’s now a member of the San Francisco 49ers after being selected 3rd overall, Lance’s prospect profile still matters when considering his chances for success moving forward. To refresh our memories, he led the North Dakota State Bison to an FCS National Championship victory as a redshirt freshman, finishing 16-0. That season, he threw for 2,786 yards on a completion percentage of just under 67% and had a touchdown to interception ratio of 28:0. He won the Jerry Rice Award for the most outstanding freshman in FCS football and was the first freshman to win the Walter Payton Award for the most outstanding player in FCS football (basically the equivalent of the Heisman Trophy for FCS), becoming the first player to win both in the same year. He won countless other awards & honors but due to the COVID shortened 2020 college football season, Lance only played in one single game in his “redshirt sophomore year”. Jumping forward to the 2021 NFL Draft, the biggest concern looming over Trey Lance was his lack of experience, especially against higher end competition, since he had only played in 19 games, starting 18 of them, all of which were at the FCS level. Despite his lack of experience, the San Francisco 49ers traded up to the 3rd overall pick, selected Trey Lance, and the rest is history.
THE TOOLS
A bit more background on Trey Lance: He stands at 6-foot-4, weighs 225-pounds and boasts tantalizing athleticism and a cannon for an arm. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, he racked up 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Remember – in college, they also count sacks as negative rushing yards, so those sack yards were subtracted from his total to reach that 1,100 number as well. He did not run the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine or his pro day but has been reported to consistently clock mid 4.5 times in addition to a 7.00 three-cone and a 39.5” vertical jump (three-cone faster than any 2020 QB including Justin Herbert’s 7.06, and vertical 1/2” shy of the all-time QB combine record).
(4:03) https://youtu.be/JgnIkfIiYGE?t=243
Despite his speed, agility and burst, the most impressive part of his athleticism is his bruising rushing style, showing shades of Josh Allen.
(1:42) https://youtu.be/zLSypCCbaLM?t=102
I’ll let his arm talent & arm strength speak for itself…
The “Quarterback Frankenstein” comp photo is of course tongue in cheek (cough, David Montgomery) but as the youngest starting quarterback in the NFL, Lance has absolutely crazy upside, unparalleled by any other QB under the age of 25.
FLASHES IN 2021
In 2021, Trey Lance was 1-1 as the starter. His lone defeat came in a 7-point loss to the division rival Arizona Cardinals who finished 11-6. He finished the season with 603 passing yards, 168 rushing yards, 6 total touchdowns (5 passing, 1 rushing) and 2 interceptions. Though he didn’t blow anyone away with his rookie year statistics, he did show flashes in both starts (ARI, HOU) and four additional appearances (DET, GB, SEA, JAX), in addition to a strong preseason showing.
Some of Lance’s highlights in his rookie season: https://youtu.be/6DqieuYOphU
FIREWORKS IN 2022
To say the San Francisco 49ers offense will be loaded in 2022 is an understatement. As of June, they have retained all of their most dangerous skill position weapons and have even added a few players in the draft and free agency. The Niners retain their receiving core of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and of course, tight end George Kittle. In the backfield, they also welcome back rookie sensation Elijah Mitchell and fullback/Swiss Army knife Kyle Juszczyk, in addition to Trey Sermon, Jeff Wilson and JaMycal Hasty. San Francisco also proceeded to add RB Tyrion Davis-Price (LSU) and WR Danny Gray (SMU) in the NFL Draft at picks 93 and 105 respectively while also signing former Steelers/Bills WR Ray-Ray McCloud and journeyman TE Tyler Kroft in free agency. They have a stacked offense with solid experience at each skill position. Kyle Shanahan has also shown willingness to use Konami code quarterbacks in the past when given the talent (Robert Griffin III – 2012-13 in Washington, and Johnny Manziel – 2014 in Cleveland).
Now this may sound crazy at first but hear me out. This situation is eerily similar to Patrick Mahomes in 2018.
The Kansas City Chiefs were a playoff team in Mahomes’ rookie season where Mahomes played limited snaps. Entering his second year, led by offensive guru Andy Reid, they had talent at all of their skill positions. The backfield was led by second year running back Kareem Hunt, coming off an unexpected breakout rookie season after the expected starter Spencer Ware got hurt. Top receiver and YAC monster, Tyreek Hill, was coming off a breakout second season and was looking to show last season’s production wasn’t a fluke. Travis Kelce was a known talent at tight end, with two 1000-yard seasons under his belt and acted as a safety blanket given his experience and proven production. Mahomes, a QB with all the tools and physical attributes, replaced a “game manager” style quarterback in Alex Smith and won the NFL MVP award while setting multiple single-season records.
Let’s replace a few words here…
The San Francisco 49ers were a playoff team in Lance’s rookie season where Lance played limited snaps. Entering his second year, led by offensive guru Kyle Shanahan, they have talent at all of their skill positions. The backfield is led by second year running back Elijah Mitchell, coming off an unexpected breakout rookie season after the expected starter Raheem Mostert got hurt. Top receiver and YAC monster, Deebo Samuel, is coming off a breakout second season and is looking to show last season’s production wasn’t a fluke. George Kittle is a known talent at tight end, with two 1000-yard seasons under his belt and will act as a safety blanket given his experience and proven production. Lance, a QB with all the tools and physical attributes, replaces a “game manager” style quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo and the rest is yet to come.
I know not all of that is sticky or predictive, but it’s extremely eerie. It also shows how much upside the situation in San Francisco cultivates. The situation in Kansas City in 2018 was a major reason many fantasy gamers were all-in on Patrick Mahomes before his historic season. Trey Lance is a locked-in Top-10 quarterback in 2022 and I predict he will finish the season as a Top-3 quarterback with QB1 overall upside that only a handful of quarterbacks possess.
LOOKING AHEAD IN DYNASTY
In seasonal leagues, Trey Lance is a smash, but what’s his outlook in dynasty? Being a “Konami code” quarterback, does that limit his long-term upside? I don’t think so. Since he was drafted 3rd overall, he will get a chance to start and will have a longer leash than most (such as Jalen Hurts), especially since the 49ers traded the house to move up for him. Let’s do a quick thought experiment… For the record, I think Trey Lance has a stronger arm and more upside than Jalen Hurts as a passer, but Hurts is the best example of an unproven, young, dual threat QB. Last year, Jalen Hurts was the QB9, which I think is near Trey Lance’s floor barring injury. If he produces at the level of 2020 Jalen Hurts, he’ll likely be inked to a contract extension very quickly in the next 1-2 years, given the capital the 49ers have invested in him. I fully believe in Trey Lance. If he produces, he deserves an extension, but I also think the same of Jalen Hurts, who’s job doesn’t seem very secure in 2023/2024. Even if Lance doesn’t produce, he’ll get a longer leash partially due to the sunk cost fallacy that plagues each and every NFL franchise. This is just another situation where you can use the NFL’s draft capital/player investment bias to your advantage. Second round pick Jalen Hurts, on the other hand, is hurt by somewhat of a “reverse” sunk cost fallacy, as he’s punished more severely for poor/average performance and is given less credit for productive games/seasons. For this reason, Lance has much more job security and a better long-term outlook than a player like Jalen Hurts. Imagine a player like Jalen Hurts, but add top-3 draft capital, arm strength through the roof, prototypical size, and a more proven team around him. THAT is a player I want in every fantasy football format, especially dynasty, and that is the type of player Trey Lance very well may be.