When I look at the pool of wide receivers there is too often the overplaying factor of personal brand and team appeal pushing players up the draft boards. Pushing up aging veterans who are at the crossroads still clinging to their last grip of relevancy. I want to try to sell you on the idea that we don’t need that first and second round wide receiver with all those bells and whistles. Sometimes that lightly used Radio Flyer is the best thing you have, and you just need to wipe the dust off and remember what it was that excited you about it before. My Radio Flyer is no other than DJ Moore. I always wonder how Moore makes his way to the fourth round in startup drafts. Is it the jersey number change? Is it the “he doesn’t have an elite quarterback” narrative? Or is it the fear that he is second fiddle to Christian McCaffery? Whatever the case may be there are some serious arguments to be made for the ever-increasing value offered in drafts.
Source: Player Profiler
BOX STUFFER
✅ #17 in Hog Rate
✅ #6 in Total Opportunity
✅ #10 in Route Win Rate
✅ #12 in YAC
✅ #4 in Unrealized Air Yards
✅ College Dominator Rating finishing with 1,033 of the 1,500 yards at Maryland in his Junior season.
One box that DJ Moore is not checking is in the corrected value column. Yes, Carolina is a small market. Yes, Carolina has not made the playoffs recently. Yes, Christian McCaffrey is the engine to the offense, but there are a few arguments to be made that would dismiss those labels.
Moore inked a 3 year extension worth $61,900,00 ensuring his job and involvement in this offense. There is such a historical importance to these second contracts. Not only getting one but to be paid amongst the elite. Being paid the 10th highest feels like a discount for what is left to be unlocked.
Moore sports one of the most historical production rates for a receiver through his first four seasons! Averaging 14.3 Yards Per Target and 69 Yards Per Game that leaves him with totals that are toe to toe with Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, and eclipsing the great Calvin Johnson and Isaac Bruce with LESS volume. Remember the legendary start to Odell Beckham’s career, where he was melting faces and showing how his rotator cuff is the flex tape of all body parts? What if I told you DJ Moore’s stats are nearly Identical to Odell’s.
THROUGH FOUR SEASONS
Moore is simply becoming a production machine while having a long history of subpar QB play. His low touchdown rate is largely a product of Quarterback production and coaches choosing to run designed plays rather than trust the passer to make a completion.
Source: Player Profiler
COLLEGE PRODUCTION
While a Junior at Maryland, Moore had Max Bortenschlager throwing the ball. As the leading passer Max finished the season with 1,313 yards. Yes, a total of 1,313 yards which helped Maryland finish with a miserable 1,500 yards passing for the season. Out of those 1,500 yards DJ finished with 1,033 of them measuring to a 66% ownership of that volume. After outclassing secondaries and showing he can produce in a low volume offense he decided to give us that ever so juicy early declare label that means so much.
Since going pro these are the Quarterbacks DJ Moore has had while putting up historical numbers:
· Cam Newton (Bad Shoulder Version)
· Kyle Allen
· Teddy Bridgewater
· Sam Darnold
Darnold was really the most disastrous of these noodle arms, putting up stats that you would expect from an emergency backup:
· 24th in Pass Attempts (406)
· 28th in Passing Yards (2,527)
· 31st in Passing Touchdowns (9)
· 9th in Interception (13)
· 33rd in catchable Pass Rate (73.2%)
While dealing with replacement level production at the league’s 4th slowest pace of play, Moore still managed to salvage his season by posting 93 receptions for 1,157 yards. Once again proving he is still the target hog we loved at Maryland. Whoever is next after Darnold should confidently be considered an upgrade for Moore. If 1150-1200 yards with atrocious Quarterback play is his floor, what does an average passer do for this offense? The path to a 1400 Yard, 10 TD season is so easy to envision.
MARKET VALUE
Moore is still being valued as WR14 on the crowdsourced site Keep Trade Cut. A sin if you ask me, ranked below aging veterans on new teams Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and even below unproven rookies like Drake London. Look past the appeal of an early pick in the widely viewed weak class. The appeal of London, Burks, and Wilson is strong but it’s safe to assume we view Moore’s current production as a successful outcome for any of these players in the next three seasons.
Source: Keep Trade Cut
FANTASY IMPACT
If you take away just one thing today let it be that DJ Moore has a lot to offer and he is a peak performance athlete who will eventually get the praise he deserves with likely a correction coming to his touchdown totals.
Carolina just landed a trade for Baker Mayfield at the start of OTA’s. While not a world beater, Mayfield offers the arm strength along with just enough guts to put Moore into some favorable situations. I hope whoever isn’t on board gets invested and will truly reap the rewards of seeing what’s in clear sight. CMC is a cautionary tale of opportunity regression, Robby Anderson has a missing person’s report out for his well being, and Terrence Marshall just simply isn’t what he looked to be coming out of college.
I would be sniffing around my leagues and offering the newfound rookie WR1 George Pickens with a late 23 second package to anyone who is doubting this elite talent. Moore is the future and offers top 5 upside. Give this man his respect!
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When it comes to fantasy league winners you usually think of an elaborate rookie with a rough offseason. Maybe a veteran who missed some time and fell deep into the crevice of the ADP pool. Sometimes the best surprises are those seasons where Justin Forsett and Jeremy Hill crept out of the woodwork for an explosive second half. When I think of Parris Campbell I still see the league winning upside with a clear path to get there.
2021 was a repeatable year for the Colts offense. The offensive line remains unchanged and one of the best units, grading as #11 on PFF. The game plan was pretty simple, punch the league in the mouth with the ever evolving Jonathan Taylor who racked up a league high rushing total of 1,811 yards. Taylor proved to be worthy of a facepalm during the draft for those who passed on him.
Sorry Chiefs fans.
Taylor has changed this team’s dynamic and opened up the field for fellow breakout teammate and skill position player Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts pass catchers are facing a vote of confidence from the front office and coaching staff. The Colts only changed one part of their 3 wide sets by drafting Alec Pierce 53rd overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Pierce looks like your usual wide receiver; he’s tall and fast but lacks consistent win rates versus conventional defenses. Tight End remains the same with Moe Allie-Cox in line to keep the reins of the starting TE position. Rookie Jelani Woods is an athletic down field prospect but not ready to command a workload of any confidence. Now to the meat and potatoes! The stars seemed aligned for this offense to make a majestic push forward under newly acquired QB Matt Ryan.
While this isn’t the 2016 Matt Ryan that your uncle tells you about in a sentimental enthusiastic tone, the truth is Ryan hasn’t fallen off much in terms of production. What he’s lacking in arm strength he’s making up for with his IQ and pre snap adjustments. The Colts offense is sporting their best arm since Andrew Luck and it’s not even close. The Colts want to move the ball and Ryan will help them do it. This is where our prize Parris Campbell comes into play!
The formula for a breakout season.
Quarterback Play:
Matt Ryan still brings a lot to the table involving here are some of his 2021 finishes in some key categories:
Pass Attempts (11th)
Passing Yards (11th)
Danger Plays (14th)
True Completion Percent (11th)
Deep Ball Completion % (3rd)
What makes this even more impressive is doing so with a makeshift wide receiver core made up of Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheous, and newly resurgent Cordarelle Patterson. You can expect Ryan to trump his 2021 numbers.
Opportunity:
Campbell is still poised to be the primary outside receiver listed as the #2 on the Colts depth chart. The team projects to be in more shootouts which only means more targets and opportunities.
Big Play Ability:
In case you forgot Campbell came out as one of the most intense prospects in 2019. Parris turned heads during the combine where he boasted a 4.31 40 time. This is quite the feat when you add on his 117.2 Speed Score (98th percentile) and his 135.5 Burst Score (97th percentile). Campbell is always one play away from causing a defense to regret their coverage.
Proven Production:
In 2018 Parris Campbell played alongside beloved Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin at Ohio State. Even with elite target competition he went on to have a phenomenal senior year where he finished with 90 receptions, 1063 yards, and 12 Touchdowns. All while doing so on a 17.9% target share! Campbell has shined before with elite talent on the other side of him, I for one embrace the talent of Michael Pittman. Barring health, I expect Campbell to offer a league winning return on his current ADP of 245 in start ups and 272 in seasonal leagues. Campbell is basically free and offers earth shattering upside.
What does this mean for my fantasy team?
Campbell is going into his best situation yet with an improved offense that will look for him to contribute in a big way. The arrow is up and shaking ready for takeoff. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Campbell puts in a year 4 breakout that consists of a 67/1100/7 line which would have put him as a WR2 last year. Keeping in mind his ADP, Campbell is still viable and is an asset that must be rostered.
